Diary of a Real Estate Junkie

My Twitter Bio

2009-09-06T15:56:00.022-04:00

Do you remember the first time you saw the Blue Screen of Death? Do you remember the feeling of the blood running out of your head, the instant nausea and the sweaty hands? If you haven't gotten "it", the most accurate comparison I can conjure is a very near miss with a potentially very bad accident. I know both. There's also another feeling that is similar to this. Getting laid off. For me, that happened on Saturday, December 27th 2008. I was in the midst of my Christmas vacation with my family. I got a phone call from one of the partners at the architectural firm I worked with, yada, yada, yada, my wife was already applying for my unemployment compensation online after I got home from cleaning out my desk. By far and away my worst. Day. Ever.

I'd been building my Twitter network slowly and steadily for the previous month or so, building a group of people who had passions for the same things I do and generally trying to figure out what the heck it was. At that point, my bio read simply, "Lover of all things Real Estate". True. I have an unhealthy obsession with our ecology. Really. Ask my wife. Now it reads: "One of the unemployed masses, incurable optimist, lover of ALL things real estate, awesome husband and stressed out dad". Why not? It's true. People are losing their minds and massacring their families, coworkers and strangers alike! Jesus, what the hell is going on!? I can not imagine getting to a point where that sounds like a "good idea". I get frustrated, sure, but it passes..as it should. If I were the only person in this situation I think my mindset would be a much, much different. I would feel more responsible. Instead, I know that I am just 1 in over 5,000,000 people in this country that have been unemployed for MORE than six months. Which means that I have fallen off the unemployment rolls and am no longer included in the Official Unemployment Rate that is published by the Government. I'm pretty sure my knowledge and acceptance of the fact; that I am a tiny fraction of an enormous population segment has a huge bearing on my bearing. A wave has swept across this country, indeed the world, in which my family and countless others have become inexorably caught up. I hold no grudge, no venom, no hard feelings for my old bosses. It was a business decision to downsize their firm, and a very necessary one at that. Am I happy about my situation? Don't be ridiculous! I am not on meds (not that anything's wrong with that) Everything my wife and I have worked for the past sixteen years has simply imploded. What keeps me ticking (in a good way :-) is the ability to make up for the time I spent away from my wife and our two little girls when times were "good" and I was gainfully employed. The past eight months have given me time to hang with the girls, to be a dad and a husband instead of someone who left for work before 7am and usually got home after dark six days a week. When I really get down, because, you know having your income severely curtailed can be more than a just a little stressful, I remind myself of this scene in Slumdog Millionaire. Believe you me. If you've seen this movie, you know what I mean.
It is impossible to remain miserable for long. By the way, if you have not seen this movie yet, go see it.

Well, I started a website, please take a look if you haven't already. The idea behind it was to make myself easier to find by someone who'd received my resume. I know HR types and hiring managers usually Google someone's name before they bring them aboard. So, in the interest of not wasting someone's time, I helped them out a bit. Good idea? Sure. Did it work? Eeah....not so much..for that particular application..yet. Evidently resumes have taken the place of spam in recruiter's mailboxes.

Welcome to my Web 2.0 job hunt - because NOTHING else is working!!

2009-03-01T17:53:00.015-05:00

Welcome,

I have been looking for work for two full months. I have applied (not just faxed or emailed resumes) to at least fifty jobs. Plus the other calls and emails that I have sent to recruiters. I have not received a call back. Not one! Wait, that is not 100% true. I applied for a job at Stiles Construction in Ft. Lauderdale last week for a marketing coordinator position. Little story here, bear with me please. I called to follow up three days after the job was posted. The woman I spoke with in HR told me that she had FOUR HUNDRED applications for the position. Four hundred! WOW! Jeez, these numbers are stacked; and not in my favor!

I sat down this weekend and asked myself how I can stand out from four hundred other people and not just be narrowed down to the first round of interviews, but actually GET A JOB? This is where you come in. You most likely heard about me from Twitter, Linkedin or a friend who forwarded this link to you. To you I say "THANK YOU" for visiting.

Please visit my professional profile at http://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathankolbe This profile includes twenty two written recommendations from clients, co-workers and previous employers. If for any reason you are unable to view them, please let me know, I will send you a .pdf.

Please see http://www.thekolbes.com/ for samples of my work including photography, presentations, web design and 3d modeling.

My you can view my posts and follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/jonkolbe

Again, thanks for stopping by. I have bills to pay and my banks are getting impatient (can't say I blame them)! So, if you know someone who is looking for an intelligent, articulate and computer savvy employee (in any field really) please contact me as soon as you are able. I hope to hear from someone soon!

A quick post script about "what I want to do". All of the recruiters I spoke with asked what it was that I want to do, the answer to that is: work! I want to work and pay my mortgage. My experience is real estate, but I don't need to be in the real estate industry , it would be nice, but there are more important things. My skill set is easily transferable to any number of industries.

jon@jonkolbe.com

Transit..here? C'mon...no way.

2009-02-22T11:28:00.013-05:00

My recent experience with mass transit has been: stopped at the railroad crossing waiting for the Tri-Rail to finish boarding and move on down the line. I mostly curse when I get stuck at the gates. You? Actually once about 25 years ago, I was at Atlantis, an old water park down around Ft. Lauderdale with a friend and my mom told me to take the bus home. No big deal right? Yeah, well....anyway...it's a long story.

Suffice it to say, I don't take use mass transit unless I am in:

A. New York.
or
B. Europe.

Because it works there.

I haven't been to either location above in the past few years, so my car is getting getting its legs stretched. I love my car. It is a Volkswagen Golf Diesel. I like the mileage I get, especially on the highways with no air conditioning, I love the smell of the exhaust, like a Kenworth. I love the big belch of black acrid smoke emitted when I am up shifting (particularly when there's a Lamborghini convertible behind me (OK I am petty and jealous, I admit it - is that SO wrong?) Mostly, I love the freedom of getting into my car and determining my own destiny(ation). It is the American way. Individualism. I think there are a couple of reasons why transit (at this point I am talking about mass transit) hasn't caught on here in South Florida. First, we love our freedom. Second, it is not convenient. Third, it is still more expedient to drive ourselves. I recently heard a story of a five hour journey from Plantation or Pembroke Pines to West Palm Beach using mass transit. For these reasons, transit has remained underutilized by the masses.

Item three above is really why I went to the 2009 Transportation Summit in Ft. Lauderdale this past weekend. I know that the region is going to grow A LOT in the next twenty years. Single family homes will be considered luxury property and the majority of new product designed, built and sold will be townhouses and condos. Dense. The location: Eastern stretches of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties and within walking distance of shops and services. Here in South Florida, we are bounded by the Atlantic to the east and the Everglades to the west with a relatively thin strip of developable land. Almost all of this land has been built on over the past 90 or so years and now a good portion of our Shangri La is ripe for redevelopment. Not necessarily gentrification, but redevelopment. This is another post entirely.

Current economic conditions aside, economies are cyclical (i.e. this too shall pass), Florida is poised to take the number four most populous state status from New York by 2030 if not by 2010. In fact in 2000 the total Florida population was 15,982,378 people. In 2030, our population is estimated at 28,685,769 (http://www.census.gov/) that is a net gain of 12,703,391 people! Many of those people will end up here in South Florida. That is housing for all those people, schools for the children and college students, offices for employees, shopping centers etc etc. The important thing to realize here is there is just no room for another I-95 or another Florida's turnpike. The acquisition of this land would be a nightmare scenario for the government organizations the courts, the property owners etc. PLUS the amount of money it costs to build this kind of infrastructure is absolutely astounding. Michigan DOT puts the cost at $39 million per mile. Add the cost of maintenance on a new roadway like this and well...just forget it. All the extra cars, all the extra costs. With the above considered, a cohesive and interconnected transit infrastructure that is comprehensive and accessible to everyone is a no brainer. OK enough of my hot air. This is the gist of the meeting this weekend. The region has buses and a train....but it was not instituted in a holistic pragmatic manner. Currently, our regional rail runs along a set of tracks that are a good distance west of the CBD's far enough so that after you get off the train, you have a twenty minute bus ride TO the CBD after the train ride. Most if not all cities have their priorities, counties have theirs and MPO's and Regionals, their own plus face an battle integrating all the subordinate pieces into one.

In order for any project like a regional transit solution to be successful the user experience must be seamless, efficient and effortless for the rider. A minimal amount of connections and punctuality are tremendously important if South Florida is to embrace a transit solution for our coming masses. This is what is coming!

If you will note, I did not use the words "sustainable" or "green" once in this post. This new system passes entirely on its own merits without any talk of global warming.

Twitter

2009-02-10T08:22:00.006-05:00

I've been getting into this web 2.0 thing since I was laid off in December and have been using the social networking sites as a job hunt assist. It has enabled me to get my personality out there for prospective employers to see.

The most fascinating site I have come across is Twitter. The idea is to keep in touch and inform with a 140 character message with friends and followers. With this said, I don't know if Twitter will help me obtain gainful employment, but it is a universe unto itself.

Below are some of the most interesting sites that work in conjunction with Twitter. If the world has been flattened, Twitter brings the ends much closer together. I've got two accounts, my primary is:
http://twitter.com/jonkolbe
and another which is:
http://twitter.com/bocasquare for my neighborhood. The latter is a sociological experiment to see the usefulness of instant communication between neighbors - I have just started it so there is not too much going on. Besides I have to find a job or there will not be any point to it and I'll need to start another for a different neighborhood :-O

What I really love about this new way of communicating is that the computer code is open. This means that any programmer with a good idea can use this open source code and create something great.

The links below are some of the more interesting that I have found:

The site below is a map of real time tweets (messages).
http://twittervision.com/ and http://twittervision.com/maps/show_3d for a 3D version.

This site enables you to find out if people who follow you are friends (where you both follow each other) or just followers.
http://friendorfollow.com/

This one shows a "tweet cloud" which is a compilation of words in the one line biographies of the people who you follow. It actually gives you a pretty strong indication of the interests of the person you search for. The link below is for my account, but if you type a user name in place of "jonkolbe" at the end of the url, it will give you a cloud for that user. GREAT STUFF!
http://twittersheep.com/results.php?u=jonkolbe

This is a chart of hot topics people are talking about.
http://twist.flaptor.com/

This is all for now, but I will update as I find new interesting concepts.

Deerfield Beach Utility Department May Shut Off Water to 168 Unit Condo

2009-02-03T09:55:00.006-05:00

According to an article in today's Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel, twenty eight of the one hundred sixty eight units are paying their maintenence fees. They owe $90,000 to Deerfield Beach. Fannie Mae is already refusing to write paper on condo sales with a 15% delinquency rate in unit dues. What is going to happen when these buildings are boarded up due to lack of utilities? Safety issues, squatters, blight, slums? That movie Escape From New York comes to mind....I think this is an issue that should be followed closely.

There is potentially huge fallout from this new development: What happens to the people who have been paying their bills and now have to move because they don't have water? Foreclosure. What happens to the cities, who if they DON'T cut the water (and instead eat the losses - or drink as the case may be) Debt, in addition to the drastically curtailed tax revenues, which will be passed on to other homeowners which opens another can of worms. For how many homeowners will this be the last straw that will put them underwater? How much can the cities absorb? Can the Feds bail out individual cities in addition to their yet to be finalized stimulus package? Is this being considered?

Only one thing is certain; there are potentially enormous buying opportunities for the circling vultures. I think we're getting into a weird area here, what do you think?

Urban Land Institute Capital Markets Update...ugh..

2009-01-31T16:56:00.011-05:00

by Stephen Blank, ULI

"The Federal Reserve Board's (FRB) most recent Beige Book economic survey contained no surprises: things are pretty bad and getting worse. The FRB's language is more politic, noting "reduced" or "low" activity in an array of industries and economic behavior consistent with a recession. Among the findings:
The overall labor outlook is becoming increasingly pessimistic as layoffs multiply across industries. Commercial real estate activity declined in most districts, with some districts characterizing the commercial real estate market as "grim and depressing." Tighter credit conditions were reported by many districts. Housing has yet to reach bottom."

Wow. "pretty bad and getting worse... increasingly pessimistic... grim and depressing... yet to reach bottom" Here in Florida, we are entering year three of this. I remember back in the beginning of October when the stock markets took that fall...remember? Well, it was like someone threw a switch and turned business off. Evidently, when that switch was thrown, it was not confined to my cubicle. My first recession was in the early 1990's. Ahhhh...good times.

If you live in South Florida, READ THIS

2009-01-18T11:28:00.012-05:00

As I noted in my first post, a little rant about Lake Worth, there is a huge study underway to bring a light rail (passenger) line to the seaboard side of the region. Ironically, four days after the post, the Study Group entered Phase 2 of the study. Please see here for a list of meetings throughtout the tri-county area. This project is going to have a major impact on eastern county traffic, population in terms of number and demographics and, most importantly, property values and the entire urban fabric of our commmunity. I will be at the Boca Raton meeting. Say hi if you stop by.

Also, the 2009 Transportation Summit Meeting will be at the Broward County Convention center toward the end of February. If you want to know when and where drop me an email - jonkolbe@gmail.com.

It's going to get dense around here....

The Current List of HUD Advertising Copy No-No's

2009-01-13T11:10:00.005-05:00

Holy smokes! This is a new list of HUD disapproved advertising words my broker just sent to me. There are fines (double actually) associated with them. I am anti-discrimination as much as any politically correct person. I agree with many of them actually. But. Wow.

An ad can say: "House for sale" oh wait, can it? What if some people can only afford to rent an apartment, will they be disaffected by my term "house"? OK, OK, OK, I have it what do you think of this one? "Dwelling space available". That leaves at 11:20am today: 6,993 listings in Boca Raton for me to look at.

Here's the list:

"55 and older 55 and over 55 older 55 plus 55 years old over 55 adult building adult living AFDC approved African American American, Asian bachelor apartment/pad black blind board/membership required Catholic Caucasian Chicano child children children OK Chinese Christian churches colored contemporary lifestyles country club couples cripples deaf desirable neighborhood/area elderly employed, must be empty-nesters English speaking ethnic neighborhood exclusive executive professional home family neighborhood first-time home buyers foreigners gays gentleman’s farm golden agers handicapped Hispanic handyman's special heterosexual his and hers homosexual Ideal for... immigrants Indian integrated interracial Irish Jewish Job references required Latino lesbian living alone luxurious neighborhood married mature membership required mentally handicapped Mexican-American middle aged mixed community Mormon mosque mother-daughter suite mother-in-law apartment neighborhood, description newly weds number of people preferred older person one child one person oriental parish, close to parish, name of perfect for... physically fit play area, no prefer prestigious private community privileged professional professional neighborhood Protestant public assistance Puerto Rican quality area quiet neighborhood quiet streets rent calculated per person restrictions retarded retired persons retirees retirement community seasonal workers secluded neighborhood section 8, etc... secure segregated senior discount senior housing seniors welcome singles sleeps special rate SSI starter home straights synagogues, close to traditional neighborhood unemployed US citizen vacation rental sleeps # welfare white working, must be young youthful"

Now, alot of these really have no business in an ad, most of them actually, but....c'mon.

You must watch this.

2009-01-12T10:31:00.005-05:00

Take two minutes forty seconds and watch this. I insist.

Residential Solar Power Costs Slashed by almost 50%!

2009-01-07T21:41:00.004-05:00

Here is a link to an article on a blog that's published by some other techie guys I know; the Autodesk Gurus. Everyone is talking green, maybe now they can walk it; $10k for 5 Kw - including all the incentives, not bad. I think $500-$750/Kw will be the target price for mass appeal (for a retrofit) AND I believe it is coming.

www.dwellicious.com

2009-01-05T19:53:00.005-05:00

My favorite real estate techies got their first Chicklet! What's a chicklet? Take a look at the link.

These guys are on the cutting edge of making order of the chaos that the "public" real estate listings have become. You gotta see their system. It is going to save lots of Realtors' deals for sure! Congrats guys!

FICO Scoring System Has Been Updated

2009-01-04T12:40:00.000-05:00

This system is so important to our every day lives and our financial health, but we almost NEVER hear anything about it, or the company behind the FICO. With that said, Fair Isaac has updated the super secret formula and are rolling out the new system the end of this month. See this link for some specifics.

The Future of Housing

2009-01-02T18:16:00.001-05:00

Over the past few years I have seen, and helped design, the sheer excess of what South Florida housing has become. Houses were designed with way too much circulation and oversized rooms (I guess that would be relative). We designed and built to every single setback of a lot, reading, re-reading and designing around ARB and building code requirements, to squeeze every square inch of usable space out of a lot. Please, don't get me wrong, we did some GREAT stuff (I will eventually get around to uploading some images of my work). My personal favorites are the townhomes at the end of the runway here where I live that sold for $550k (disclaimer: I did not work on these). Edifice rex, McMansion, no matter what you call it (perhaps the past tense is more appropriate), are in the process of becoming obsolete. Some people called them unsustainable some people called them good for the tax base. Whether you liked them or not, the boom times 2000's will be referred to the guilded age of US housing. Suburbia is on very thin ice.

If I had a few million dollars, I would buy Lake Worth, the whole damned town. The enitre town is for sale...cheap. East, by the water, compact; platted in the 20's, and (over)ripe for redevelopment. The TCRPC and the SFRPC have studies and tentative agreements with the railroad to build a light rail line in the eastern half of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. Where Tri-Rail should've been built to begin with. Back to Lake Worth, the utility infrastructure is so outdated and in such a state of disrepair, add to that most of the homes are "original" (or historic) just a quick guesstimate is that 1/2 - 3/4 of the houses need to come down. The compact lots, the very low land costs and its proximity to the ocean is a sure thing. Small well designed homes with thoughtful plans built in place of blight. This I believe is the future of housing.

Reuters Real Estate

2009-01-01T04:44:00.000-05:00

Have you seen this service? I could read it for hours...and do. They offer a free standard membership now.

http://www.reutersrealestate.com/

Front Lines of Retail Real Estate

2008-12-31T07:43:00.001-05:00

On the front lines of retail real estate, things have changed significantly! Back when I was working with Arvida (back in the 90's as my daughter says), the MLS was a 1200 bps or baud (whatever the correct lingo is) modem a DOS screen and it took a long, long time to do anything! Now, I have my license at Keyes, they have an incredible "Agent Dashboard" which is accessable via the internet. Every tool a Realtor could use is RIGHT THERE. Absolutely fantastic! Now, I have a friend, his name is Tim Kinzler, he is a forward thinking early adopter who is constantly thinking about ways to increase efficiencies. He has a tablet pc with with an air card and he is just tied in; he wields that computer like its a sword - in a figurative, way it is just that. Tim, I salute you. You are one of the most forward thinking people I know.

I know a couple of guys who've got a real estate technology start up with a great idea furthering the future of house hunting, and enabling at least to some extent, a buyers Realtor to retain some semblance of control....take a look http://www.dwellicious.com/. The site was a very big hit at the national NAR convention last month.

What is going to happen to retail real estate? How will it change further with the introduction and general acceptance of all of these social networking sites?

Introduction and Tomorrow

2008-12-30T20:41:00.001-05:00

As a quick introduction to me, I was once employed. Before you stop reading, this is just a QUICK introduction. At my job I had an outlet for my obsession. Now? Now, I am driving my wife and kids insane with my ramblings about the rediculous finial on the new condo over on the beach.

Please let me take a moment and ask you to take a moment to look at my profile on linkedin. http://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathankolbe Thank you. That is pretty much all I am going to say about that. Now, on with it.

I will try to get some interesting conversations going. I play one heck of a devil's advocate. I am in SE Florida so my posts will be a little Floridacentric...but that is how real estate is, its local. Please feel free to tell us how it is in your neck of the woods.

I would like to start a dialog about the future of real estate. I know it's a very broad topic, feel free to mention something that you feel comfortable discussing. Financing, design, planning, engineering, sales, leasing, marketing, acquiring; whatever you like.

The question is:
When markets cycle, things change. Businesses adapt and things are done differently. What do you think will be different when we get though this tunnel?

I have enabled anonymous posting so you dont need an account to join in the coversation - or diatribe or whatever this turns into...